Us–China Trade War under Donald Trump 2017–2021: Trade Substitution Opportunities for Nigeria?

Abstract

This study interrogates the reverberations of the US-China trade war on developing economies, with specific reference to the largest economy in Africa, Nigeria. While the US-China trade war is ongoing and becoming more intensified, concerns have been raised concerning the nature and dynamics of the trade war, the current and potential effects it has on both countries and the global economy - due to the importance of trade liberalization to global economic integration. Studies reveal that the trade war has changed the pattern of trade of many countries, especially in Asia, taking trade substitution as an alternative pathway to benefit from the trade war. Within the context of trade substitution as a viable opportunistic method, operationalized within the framework of securitization and competitive advantage theories, this study analyzes the extent of such in developing economies of Africa, in tandem with the factor of trade influence on economic development in terms of GDP. Through the use of textual data and thematical analysis, this study submits that China and the United States are key drivers in the global economy; the African economy is relatively affected by the US-China trade war; effects of the trade war is reflected in the pattern of Nigeria’s import and export; Nigeria can take more advantage of US-China trade substitution. Also, there is a need for Nigeria to make production-oriented economic policies in order to position Africa among the global supply chain to mitigate the trade war effects as they intensify.