Assessing the Influence of Local Perception and Land Use Land Cover Dynamics on Vegetation Change in Katsina State, Nigeria

Abstract

Vegetation degradation and land use land cover (LULC) change are major environmental challenges in the semi-arid regions of northern Nigeria, where increasing human pressure and climate variability threaten ecosystem stability and livelihoods. Katsina State, located within the Sudano–Sahelian zone, has experienced rapid changes in land use patterns over recent decades, making it a critical area for assessing vegetation dynamics and land degradation processes. The objective of this study was to evaluate the spatio-temporal dynamics of LULC and to examine how land use practices and human influences affect vegetation change in Katsina State, Nigeria, with particular attention to implications for land degradation and desertification. Multi-temporal Landsat (MSS, TM, ETM+, OLI) and Sentinel-2A imagery from 1989, 1999, 2009, and 2019 were analyzed using supervised classification and accuracy assessment based on the Kappa coefficient. Land Change Modeler (LCM) within IDRISI Selva was applied to assess LULC transitions, quantify gains and losses, and simulate future land use patterns using Markov Chain analysis, logistic regression, and multi-layer perceptron neural networks. Human drivers of change were assessed through a Human Influence Index (HII) integrating population density, infrastructure, and proximity variables. Field observations, household questionnaires (n = 400), and key informant interviews complemented the geospatial analysis. Results show a persistent decline in vegetation cover from 1989 to 2019, largely due to the expansion of farmland and built-up areas, while water bodies, bareland, and rock outcrops exhibited minor fluctuations. Vegetation loss intensified after 1999, particularly in areas of high population density and accessibility, and was more severe in northern Katsina. Future projections to 2050 indicate continued expansion of agriculture and settlements at the expense of natural vegetation, increasing vulnerability to land degradation and desertification. This study recommends strengthened land-use planning, promotion of sustainable agricultural practices, protection and restoration of natural vegetation, and continuous geospatial monitoring to support sustainable land management in Katsina State.